Henggi Apedro*

*Animal Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Lambung Mangkurat University, Jl. A. Yani, Banjarbaru, South Kalimantan 70714, Indonesia

Muhammad Yasin Syihabuddin

Animal Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Lambung Mangkurat University, Jl. A. Yani, Banjarbaru, South Kalimantan 70714, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19184/jsep.v19i1.60012

ABSTRACT 

This study examines why global beef prices often fluctuate sharply and how this risk changes over time. Using monthly beef price data from the World Bank commodity database, the research models price movements in two stages. A seasonal time-series model captures regular monthly patterns and short-run dynamics, while a volatility model measures how price risk rises and falls across months. The results indicate volatility clustering, meaning periods of high volatility tend to be followed by further high volatility, and calm periods tend to persist as well. Volatility is also persistent, implying that shocks can keep price risk elevated beyond the initial event. These findings suggest that market monitoring should report not only expected price movements but also expected volatility. Policy implications include the need for adaptive stabilization measures, improved market information systems, and risk-management strategies for supply-chain actors during high-volatility periods, including procurement planning and inventory decisions.

Keywords: beef price; volatility; seasonal ARMA; GARCH; World Bank.

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